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chance the money lasts
Portfolio over time
How much can you spend?
Highest monthly spending (today's HK$) that still meets each confidence level, at your chosen retirement age.
When could you retire?
Chance the money lasts for each retirement age (dashed line = 90%).
Things to check
How the model works & its limits
- Returns: equity inputs are compound annual returns (CAGR) after fees. Each year is drawn from a lognormal distribution; 12% of years are "turbulent" with 1.5× volatility if fat tails are on. HK and global equities are correlated.
- Bonds/cash: modest volatility, uncorrelated with equities (optimistic in a crash). Insurance grows deterministically at your entered rate and is assumed freely withdrawable once unlocked: confirm real surrender values.
- Inflation: random with some persistence. Medical costs inflate faster by your premium.
- Timing: spending is taken at the start of each year; savings are added at year-end. The spending cut rule looks at the previous year's return.
- Locked assets (TVC) are excluded from spendable wealth until the unlock age, so a gap between retirement and unlock is a real constraint.
- Not modelled: tax, MPF, property, other income, one-off costs, currency moves, bond-equity correlation, longevity beyond your plan age. Default market assumptions are judgement calls, not forecasts. Change them and see how fragile the answer is.