HK Institutional FIRE & Monte Carlo Stress-Test Terminal

Liquid & Locked Asset Ledger

Values in HKD • Pre-loaded with your latest portfolio

Total Net Worth HK$ 23,803,137

Idle HKD Bank Cash (0% Yield) OER: 0.00% | Drag Alert

HK$

Net of HKD 1.32M already swept into LSE Money Market ETFs.

LSE Ireland MMF ETFs & Cash Equiv. OER: ~0.12% | IB01/JPST

HK$

Includes HKD 1.32M deployed in IB01/JPST/XFFE + HKD 800k time deposits.

US T-Bills & HK Govt Bonds OER: 0.00% | Direct

HK$

Active Retail Bond Funds OER: 1.50% | High Fee Drag

HK$

Savings Insurance & TVC Wrapper Surrender Value

HK$

% Locked in TVC/MPF until Age 65:

HK Dividend Stocks (e.g., 2800.HK) ~5.2% Div Yield

HK$

Global Growth ETFs (IWDA/CSPX/US) OER: ~0.18% | Growth Engine

HK$

Outstanding Liabilities / Mortgage 3.80% Debt Cost

HK$

Accrues 3.80% p.a. borrowing cost; serviced annually from cash flow.

Dynamic Asset Lines

Cash Flow & FIRE Horizon

Configure active savings and post-FIRE withdrawal needs

Current Age

FIRE Trigger Age

Horizon Age

Active Monthly Salary Saved (Pre-FIRE) 100% Deployed

HK$

Invested into Global Growth ETFs (IWDA/CSPX) until FIRE Trigger Age.

Target Monthly Retirement Spend (Today's HKD) HKD 600k / yr

HK$

Automatically adjusted upward every year by stochastic HK inflation.

Post-65 Medical / Healthcare Buffer (Monthly) Today's HKD

HK$

Added from Age 65+ to model rising private HK medical insurance premiums.

Withdrawal Guardrail Strategy

Strict mode tests if your portfolio survives with zero lifestyle compromises.

Prudent Capital Market Assumptions

Lognormal Drift with Ito Volatility Drag (-½σ²) & Fat-Tail Shocks

HK CPI Mean (%)

CPI Vol σ (%)

Medical Infl. (%)

Global Growth ETFs (IWDA/CSPX) Net Median CAGR: ~5.4%

Arithmetic Mean μ (%)

Volatility σ (%)

HK Dividend Equities (Total Return) Net Median CAGR: ~3.3%

Arithmetic Mean μ (%)

Volatility σ (%)

Normalized Cash / Bond / Insurance Cycle-Averaged

Cycle MMF Base Yield (%)

Net Insurance CAGR (%)

Actuarial & Stochastic Engine Frictions

To prevent overly optimistic projections, each sub-asset is tracked independently with lognormal volatility drag (-½σ²), real-world tax/fee frictions, and a 4% annual fat-tail crisis probability:

Global UCITS ETFs: μ - 0.18% OER - 0.22% (15% US Div WHT) - ½σ²
HK Div Equities: μ - 0.15% OER/Stamp Friction - ½σ²
LSE MMFs & Deposits: Base Yield - 0.12% OER (σ = 1.0%)
US & HK Govt Bonds: Base + 0.10% Term Premium (σ = 4.2%)
Active Bond Funds: Base + 0.10% - 1.50% OER (σ = 5.0%)
Savings Insurance: Net CAGR (σ = 1.5%, 8% early liquidation haircut)
Idle Bank Cash: Strictly 0.0% nominal (-CPI real loss)

Inject Year-1 Retirement Bear Shock

Forces a -30% equity crash in Year 1 of retirement (Age 52) across all paths to test extreme Sequence-of-Returns resilience.

Natural Passive Cash-Flow Check 138% Covered

Addresses your core concern: "Will optimization impair my everyday passive income?"

Est. Monthly Yield & Divs HK$ 55,420 From HK Divs + LSE MMFs + Bonds

Target Monthly Spend HK$ 50,000 +HK$ 5,420 / mo surplus

Monte Carlo Survival

99.6% BULLETPROOF

2,500 stochastic paths to Age 90

Effective SWR at FIRE

2.16% vs 4.0% Benchmark

Projected NAV at Age 52: HK$ 29.1M

4% Rule FIRE Target

HK$ 15.0M 159% Funded

3.5% Conservative Target: HK$ 17.1M

Median Legacy (Age 90)

HK$ 68.4M

Worst 10th Percentile: HK$ 24.1M

Stochastic Portfolio Trajectory Fan Chart (2,500 Simulations)

Tracks Real Purchasing Power (Today's HKD, Net of Inflation & Volatility Drag)

90th Pct (Bull) 50th Pct (Median) 25th Pct 10th Pct (Severe Stress)

Simulation Band	At FIRE Trigger (Age 52)	10 Yrs Into FIRE (Age 62)	TVC Unlock (Age 65)	Late Retirement (Age 80)	Terminal (Age 90)

Wealth Allocation & Fee Audit

Weighted Portfolio Expense Drag & Asset Mix

Weighted Portfolio Fee Drag: 0.14% p.a. (HK$ 33,120/yr)

Financial Scrutiny & Strategic Roadmap

Devil's Advocate Audit of Your Current Setup vs. Institutional Benchmarks

HK Benchmark

Programmatic 3-Bucket Retirement Cash Flow Engine

How your portfolio funds HKD 50,000/month in 2028 without forced equity liquidation in bear markets

Global & Hong Kong Wealth Distribution Context

Structural retirement cushions vary starkly across global demographics: for example, in the US, the median retirement savings for White households is approximately $65,000, compared to $20,000 for Black households and $28,000 for Hispanic households. In Hong Kong—where there is no universal state pension beyond MPF—operating at a HKD 23.8M+ liquid tier places your household in the top institutional percentile. Your primary risk is never absolute capital adequacy, but rather inflation erosion, home-bias concentration, and sequence-of-returns management.